Convective Outlook Guide for Pilots

Convective Outlook

Introduction to Convective Outlook

A Convective Outlook (AC) delineates areas forecast to have thunderstorms (convective activity)
Found at https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/.
Test your understanding of Convective Outlook by completing the knowledge quiz, applying your knowledge in the interactive scenario, comparing your performance against the applicable Airman Certification Standards, and concluding with the topic summary to reinforce the key concepts before moving on to the next lesson.

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Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook Key Highlights

Convective outlooks provide forecast information regarding expected thunderstorm development and severe convective weather potential.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues convective outlooks to identify areas with potential thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds, or tornadoes.
Pilots use convective outlooks during preflight planning to evaluate large-scale thunderstorm risk and route safety considerations.
Outlooks categorize severe weather risk using designations such as marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, and high risk.
Convective weather can produce turbulence, lightning, hail, icing, wind shear, heavy precipitation, and rapidly changing flight conditions.
Convective outlooks help pilots identify regions where thunderstorms may affect airport operations, routing, and fuel planning.
Forecast areas may evolve significantly as atmospheric conditions change throughout the forecast period.
Pilots should compare convective outlooks with radar imagery, SIGMETs (Significant Meteorological Information), METARs (Aviation Routine Weather Reports), TAFs (Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts), and pilot reports for complete weather analysis.
Thunderstorms should be avoided by substantial distances due to associated turbulence, hail, and severe weather hazards.
Understanding convective outlooks improves weather hazard recognition, strategic planning, and overall flight safety.

Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook Information

Convective Outlook
Convective outlooks are presented in a paneled chart. []
The left-hand panel is the Day 1 Convective Outlook
The right-hand panel is the Day 2 Convective Outlook
These guidance products are produced at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK.
Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook

Issuance & Validity

Issued as required
Day 1 issued 5 times, valid first 24 hours
Day 2 issued 2 times, valid next 24 hours
Additional validity explained later
Data is forecasted

Convective Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook

Outlines areas where thunderstorms are forecast during the Day 1 period
First issuance is 0600Z and is the initial Day 1 outlook valid 1200Z that day until 1200Z the following day
The other issuances are 1300Z, 1630Z, 2000Z, and 0100Z, all valid until 1200Z the next day
Outlooks issue qualifiers for the level of risk (SLGT, MDT, HIGH - see below), as well as areas of general thunderstorms

Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook

Outlines areas where thunderstorms are forecast during the Day 1 period
Initially issued at 0830Z during standard time and 0730Z during daylight time
It is updated at 1730Z
Time frame covered is from 1200Z the following day to 1200Z the next day
Day 2 outlook also issues risk qualifiers

Convective Outlook

Levels of Risk (risk qualifiers)

NOTATION

EXPLANATION

SEE TEXT

Used for those situations where a SLGT risk was considered but at the time of the forecast, was not warranted

SLGT (slight risk)

A high probability of 5 to 29 reports of 1 inch or larger hail, and/or 3-5 tornadoes, and/or 5 to 29 wind events, or a low/moderate probability of moderate to high risk being issued later if some conditions come together

MDT (moderate risk)

A high probability of at least 30 reports of hail 1 inch or larger; or 6-19 tornadoes; or numerous wind events (30)

HIGH (high risk)

A high probability of at least 20 tornadoes with at least two of them rated F3 (or higher), or an extreme derecho causing widespread (50 or more) wind events with numerous higher-end wind (80 mph or higher) and structural damage reports

Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook Interactive Scenario

Interactive Scenario

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Decision 1

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Scenario Complete

Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook Knowledge Check

Choose the knowledge check that matches your current training for Convective Outlook.

Private Pilot

PPL knowledge check

Core Knowledge Review

Review foundational knowledge, key concepts, and practical considerations. Topic: Convective Outlook.

Immediate feedback
Answer explanations
Account progress tracking

Why Take a Quiz?

Quizzes reinforce key concepts, identify knowledge gaps, and build confidence for real-world decisions. Quiz material is representative of the information provided here and is not based on or sourced from the Federal Aviation Administration test bank.

Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook-Related Airman Certification Standards

Sport Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Practical Test Standards:

Source: FAA-S-8081-29A, Section 1 - Sport Pilot Airplane.
Objective: To determine that the applicant exhibits knowledge of the elements related to weather information.
References: 14 CFR part 91; AIM; FAA-H-8083-25; AC 00-6; AC 00-45; Aviation Weather Reports, Charts, and Forecasts.
Sport Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Lesson Plan.

Objective Elements 4 PTS Elements

SP.1:
Exhibits knowledge of the elements related to real-time weather information appropriate to the specific category/class aircraft by consulting weather reports, charts, and forecasts from aeronautical weather-reporting sources.
SP.2:
Makes a competent “go/no-go” decision based on available weather information.
SP.3:
Describes the importance of avoiding adverse weather and inadvertent entry into IMC.
SP.4:
Explains courses of action to safely exit from an inadvertent IMC encounter.

Private Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards:

Source: FAA-S-ACS-6C, Private Pilot - Airplane.
Objective: To determine whether the applicant exhibits satisfactory knowledge, risk management, and skills associated with weather information for a flight under VFR.
References: 14 CFR part 91; AC 91-92; AIM; FAA-H-8083-2; FAA-H-8083-3; FAA-H-8083-25; FAA-H-8083-28.
Private Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Lesson Plan.

Knowledge 4 ACS Elements

PA.I.C.K1:
Sources of weather data (e.g., National Weather Service and Flight Service) for flight planning purposes.
PA.I.C.K2:
Acceptable weather products and resources required for preflight planning and current and forecast weather for departure, en route, and arrival phases of flight, such as:
- PA.I.C.K2a:
  Airport observations (METAR and SPECI) and pilot observations (PIREP).
- PA.I.C.K2b:
  Surface Analysis Chart and Ceiling and Visibility Chart (CVA).
- PA.I.C.K2c:
  Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF).
- PA.I.C.K2d:
  Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA).
- PA.I.C.K2e:
  Wind and Temperature Aloft Forecast (FB).
- PA.I.C.K2f:
  Convective Outlook (AC).
- PA.I.C.K2g:
  Inflight aviation weather advisories, including Airmen’s Meteorological Information (AIRMET), Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET), and Convective SIGMET.
PA.I.C.K3:
Meteorology applicable to the departure, en route, alternate, and destination under visual flight rules (VFR) in visual meteorological conditions (VMC), including expected climate and hazardous conditions such as:
- PA.I.C.K3a:
  Atmospheric composition and stability.
- PA.I.C.K3b:
  Wind (e.g., crosswind, tailwind, wind shear, and mountain wave).
- PA.I.C.K3c:
  Temperature and heat exchange.
- PA.I.C.K3d:
  Moisture and precipitation.
- PA.I.C.K3e:
  Weather-system formation, including air masses and fronts.
- PA.I.C.K3f:
  Clouds.
- PA.I.C.K3g:
  Turbulence.
- PA.I.C.K3h:
  Thunderstorms and microbursts.
- PA.I.C.K3i:
  Icing and freezing-level information.
- PA.I.C.K3j:
  Fog and mist.
- PA.I.C.K3k:
  Frost.
- PA.I.C.K3l:
  Obstructions to visibility (e.g., smoke, haze, and volcanic ash).
PA.I.C.K4:
Flight deck displays of digital weather and aeronautical information.

Risk Management 2 ACS Elements

PA.I.C.R1:
Making the go/no-go and continue/divert decisions, including:
- PA.I.C.R1a:
  Circumstances that would make diversion prudent.
- PA.I.C.R1b:
  Personal weather minimums.
- PA.I.C.R1c:
  Hazardous weather conditions, including known or forecast icing or turbulence aloft.
PA.I.C.R2:
Use and limitations of:
- PA.I.C.R2a:
  Installed onboard weather equipment.
- PA.I.C.R2b:
  Aviation weather reports and forecasts.
- PA.I.C.R2c:
  Inflight weather resources.

Skills 3 ACS Elements

PA.I.C.S1:
Use available aviation weather resources to obtain an adequate weather briefing.
PA.I.C.S2:
Analyze the implications of at least three of the conditions listed in K3a through K3l, using actual weather or weather conditions provided by the evaluator.
PA.I.C.S3:
Correlate weather information to make a go/no-go decision.

Commercial Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards:

Source: FAA-S-ACS-7B, Commercial Pilot - Airplane.
Objective: To determine whether the applicant exhibits satisfactory knowledge, risk management, and skills associated with weather information for a flight under VFR.
References: 14 CFR part 91; AC 91-92; AIM; FAA-H-8083-2; FAA-H-8083-3; FAA-H-8083-25; FAA-H-8083-28.
Commercial Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Lesson Plan.

Knowledge 4 ACS Elements

CA.I.C.K1:
Sources of weather data (e.g., National Weather Service and Flight Service) for flight planning purposes.
CA.I.C.K2:
Acceptable weather products and resources required for preflight planning and current and forecast weather for departure, en route, and arrival phases of flight, such as:
- CA.I.C.K2a:
  Airport observations (METAR and SPECI) and pilot observations (PIREP).
- CA.I.C.K2b:
  Surface Analysis Chart and Ceiling and Visibility Chart (CVA).
- CA.I.C.K2c:
  Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF).
- CA.I.C.K2d:
  Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA).
- CA.I.C.K2e:
  Wind and Temperature Aloft Forecast (FB).
- CA.I.C.K2f:
  Convective Outlook (AC).
- CA.I.C.K2g:
  Inflight aviation weather advisories, including Airmen’s Meteorological Information (AIRMET), Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET), and Convective SIGMET.
CA.I.C.K3:
Meteorology applicable to the departure, en route, alternate, and destination under visual flight rules (VFR) in visual meteorological conditions (VMC), including expected climate and hazardous conditions such as:
- CA.I.C.K3a:
  Atmospheric composition and stability.
- CA.I.C.K3b:
  Wind (e.g., crosswind, tailwind, wind shear, and mountain wave).
- CA.I.C.K3c:
  Temperature and heat exchange.
- CA.I.C.K3d:
  Moisture and precipitation.
- CA.I.C.K3e:
  Weather-system formation, including air masses and fronts.
- CA.I.C.K3f:
  Clouds.
- CA.I.C.K3g:
  Turbulence.
- CA.I.C.K3h:
  Thunderstorms and microbursts.
- CA.I.C.K3i:
  Icing and freezing-level information.
- CA.I.C.K3j:
  Fog and mist.
- CA.I.C.K3k:
  Frost.
- CA.I.C.K3l:
  Obstructions to visibility (e.g., smoke, haze, and volcanic ash).
CA.I.C.K4:
Flight deck displays of digital weather and aeronautical information.

Risk Management 2 ACS Elements

CA.I.C.R1:
Making the go/no-go and continue/divert decisions, including:
- CA.I.C.R1a:
  Circumstances that would make diversion prudent.
- CA.I.C.R1b:
  Personal weather minimums.
- CA.I.C.R1c:
  Hazardous weather conditions, including known or forecast icing or turbulence aloft.
CA.I.C.R2:
Use and limitations of:
- CA.I.C.R2a:
  Installed onboard weather equipment.
- CA.I.C.R2b:
  Aviation weather reports and forecasts.
- CA.I.C.R2c:
  Inflight weather resources.

Skills 3 ACS Elements

CA.I.C.S1:
Use available aviation weather resources to obtain an adequate weather briefing.
CA.I.C.S2:
Analyze the implications of at least three of the conditions listed in K3a through K3l, using actual weather or weather conditions provided by the evaluator.
CA.I.C.S3:
Correlate weather information to make a go/no-go decision.

Private Pilot (Helicopter) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards

Area of Operation I: Preflight Preparation.
Task C: Weather Information.
Objective: To determine the applicant exhibits satisfactory knowledge, risk management, and skills associated with weather information for a flight under VFR.
Note: If K2 is selected, the evaluator must assess the applicant's knowledge of at least three sub-elements.
Note: If K3 is selected, the evaluator must assess the applicant's knowledge of at least three sub-elements.
References: 14 CFR part 91; AC 91-92; AIM; FAA-H-8083-2, FAA-H-8083-21, FAA-H-8083-25, FAA-H-8083-28
Private Pilot (Helicopter) Weather Information Lesson Plan.

Knowledge 4 ACS Elements

PH.I.C.K1:
Sources of weather data (e.g., National Weather Service, Flight Service) for flight planning purposes.
PH.I.C.K2:
Acceptable weather products and resources required for preflight planning, current and forecast weather for departure, en route, and arrival phases of flight such as:
- PH.I.C.K2a:
  a. Airport Observations (METAR and SPECI) and Pilot Observations (PIREP)
- PH.I.C.K2b:
  b. Surface Analysis Chart, Ceiling and Visibility Chart (CVA)
- PH.I.C.K2c:
  c. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF)
- PH.I.C.K2d:
  d. Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA)
- PH.I.C.K2e:
  e. Wind and Temperature Aloft Forecast (FB)
- PH.I.C.K2f:
  f. Convective Outlook (AC)
- PH.I.C.K2g:
  g. Inflight Aviation Weather Advisories including Airmen's Meteorological Information (AIRMET), Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET), and Convective SIGMET
PH.I.C.K3:
Meteorology applicable to the departure, en route, alternate, and destination under visual flight rules (VFR) in Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC), including expected climate and hazardous conditions such as:
- PH.I.C.K3a:
  a. Atmospheric composition and stability
- PH.I.C.K3b:
  b. Wind (e.g., windshear, mountain wave, factors affecting wind, etc.)
- PH.I.C.K3c:
  c. Temperature and heat exchange
- PH.I.C.K3d:
  d. Moisture/precipitation
- PH.I.C.K3e:
  e. Weather system formation, including air masses and fronts
- PH.I.C.K3f:
  f. Clouds
- PH.I.C.K3g:
  g. Turbulence
- PH.I.C.K3h:
  h. Thunderstorms and microbursts
- PH.I.C.K3i:
  i. Icing and freezing level information
- PH.I.C.K3j:
  j. Fog/mist
- PH.I.C.K3k:
  k. Frost
- PH.I.C.K3l:
  l. Obstructions to visibility (e.g., smoke, haze, volcanic ash, etc.)
PH.I.C.K4:
Flight deck instrument displays of digital weather and aeronautical information.

Risk Management 2 ACS Elements

PH.I.C.R1:
Making the go/no-go and continue/divert decisions, including:
- PH.I.C.R1a:
  a. Circumstances that would make diversion prudent
- PH.I.C.R1b:
  b. Personal weather minimums
- PH.I.C.R1c:
  c. Hazardous weather conditions, including known or forecast icing or turbulence aloft
PH.I.C.R2:
Use and limitations of:
- PH.I.C.R2a:
  a. Installed onboard weather equipment
- PH.I.C.R2b:
  b. Aviation weather reports and forecasts
- PH.I.C.R2c:
  c. Inflight weather resources

Skills 3 ACS Elements

PH.I.C.S1:
Use available aviation weather resources to obtain an adequate weather briefing.
PH.I.C.S2:
Analyze the implications of at least three of the conditions listed in K3a through K3l, using actual weather or weather conditions provided by the evaluator.
PH.I.C.S3:
Correlate weather information to make a go/no-go decision.

Sport Pilot (Helicopter) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards

Area of Operation I: Preflight Preparation.
Task C: Weather Information.
Objective: To determine the applicant exhibits satisfactory knowledge, risk management, and skills associated with weather information for a flight under VFR.
References: 14 CFR part 91; AC 91-92; AIM; FAA-H-8083-2, FAA-H-8083-21, FAA-H-8083-25, FAA-H-8083-28
Sport Pilot (Helicopter) Weather Information Lesson Plan.

Knowledge 4 ACS Elements

SH.I.C.K1:
Sources of weather data (e.g., National Weather Service, Flight Service) for flight planning purposes.
SH.I.C.K2:
Acceptable weather products and resources required for preflight planning, current and forecast weather for departure, en route, and arrival phases of flight such as:
- SH.I.C.K2a:
  Airport Observations (METAR, SPECI, AWOS, ASOS) and Pilot Weather Reports (PIREPs)
- SH.I.C.K2b:
  Surface Analysis Chart, Ceiling and Visibility Chart (CVA)
- SH.I.C.K2c:
  Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF)
- SH.I.C.K2d:
  Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA)
- SH.I.C.K2e:
  Wind and Temperature Aloft Forecast (FB)
- SH.I.C.K2f:
  Convective Outlook (AC)
- SH.I.C.K2g:
  Inflight Aviation Weather Advisories including Airmen's Meteorological Information (AIRMET), Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET), and Convective SIGMET
SH.I.C.K3:
Meteorology applicable to the departure, en route, alternate, and destination under visual flight rules (VFR) in Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC), including expected climate and hazardous conditions such as:
- SH.I.C.K3a:
  Atmospheric composition and stability
- SH.I.C.K3b:
  Wind (e.g., windshear, mountain wave, factors affecting wind, etc.)
- SH.I.C.K3c:
  Temperature, heat exchange, and temperature inversion
- SH.I.C.K3d:
  Moisture/precipitation
- SH.I.C.K3e:
  Weather system formation, including air masses and fronts
- SH.I.C.K3f:
  Clouds
- SH.I.C.K3g:
  Turbulence
- SH.I.C.K3h:
  Thunderstorms and microbursts
- SH.I.C.K3i:
  Icing and freezing level information
- SH.I.C.K3j:
  Fog/mist
- SH.I.C.K3k:
  Frost
- SH.I.C.K3l:
  Obstructions to visibility (e.g., smoke, haze, volcanic ash, etc.)
SH.I.C.K4:
Flight deck instrument displays of digital weather and aeronautical information.

Risk Management 2 ACS Elements

SH.I.C.R1:
Making the go/no-go and continue/divert decisions, including:
- SH.I.C.R1a:
  Circumstances that would make diversion prudent
- SH.I.C.R1b:
  Personal weather minimums
- SH.I.C.R1c:
  Hazardous weather conditions, including known or forecast icing or turbulence aloft
SH.I.C.R2:
Use and limitations of:
- SH.I.C.R2a:
  Installed onboard weather equipment
- SH.I.C.R2b:
  Aviation weather reports and forecasts
- SH.I.C.R2c:
  In-flight weather resources

Skills 3 ACS Elements

SH.I.C.S1:
Use available aviation weather resources to obtain an adequate weather briefing.
SH.I.C.S2:
Analyze the implications of at least three of the conditions listed in K3a through K3l, using actual weather or weather conditions provided by the evaluator.
SH.I.C.S3:
Correlate weather information to make a go/no-go decision.

Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook Conclusion

For more information, a paper copy of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA-H-8083-28) Aviation Weather Handbook [Amazon] is available for purchase
- A digital copy of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA-H-8083-28) Aviation Weather Handbook is available from the FAA's website
Improve your weather skills with FAA provided (and WINGS credited) resources by going to https://www.faasafety.gov/ and type "weather" into the search bar
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Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook

Introduction to Convective Outlook

Convective Outlook Key Highlights

Convective Outlook Information

Issuance & Validity

Day 1 Convective Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook

Levels of Risk (risk qualifiers)

Convective Outlook Interactive Scenario

Interactive Scenario

Scenario Complete

Convective Outlook Knowledge Check

Core Knowledge Review

Advanced Application

Why Take a Quiz?

Sport Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Practical Test Standards:

Private Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards:

Commercial Pilot (Airplane) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards:

Private Pilot (Helicopter) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards

Sport Pilot (Helicopter) Weather Information Airman Certification Standards

Convective Outlook Conclusion

Convective Outlook References