Area Forecast

Regional weather forecasts provide broad insight into conditions that may influence route planning and flight safety. Understanding the area forecast helps pilots anticipate cloud coverage, visibility trends, and significant weather expected across larger geographic regions.

Area Forecast

Introduction to Area Forecast

  • An Area Forecast (FA) is a forecast of Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC), clouds, and general weather conditions over an area the size of several states
  • FAs cover ten areas throughout the United States whose validity times allow for advanced planning for regional flights
  • Details provided result in a categorical outlook which allow for determining regions experiencing Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), Low IMR, Visual Flight Rules (IFR), and marginal VFR conditions
  • FAs can be found on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) website at: https://www.aviationweather.gov/gfa
  • FAA Validation: Loading…
Area Forecast

Area Forecast Background

  • Area forecasts are regional forecasts
  • Area Forecast Coverage
    Area Forecast Coverage
  • Area Forecast Coverage
    Area Forecast Coverage
Area Forecast

Issuance & Validity

  • Issuance:

    • Issued 3 times daily (times vary by area)
    • Issued for: [Figure 1]
      • Boston (BOS)
      • Chicago (CHI)
      • Salt Lake City (SLC)
      • San Francisco (SFO)
      • Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)
      • Miami (MIA)
      • Gulf of Mexico (GULF)
      • Hawaii
      • Alaska
      • Caribbean Areas

  • Validity:

    • Valid for 12 hours forecast and 6 hours outlook (18 total)
    • Data is forecasted
Area Forecast

Categorical Outlooks

  • Categorical outlook terms, describing general ceiling and visibility conditions for advanced planning purposes are used only in area forecasts

  • LIFR (Low IFR):

    • Ceiling less than 500 feet and/or visibility less than 1 mile

  • IFR:

    • Ceiling 500 to less than 1,000 feet and/or visibility 1 to less than 3 miles

  • MVFR (Marginal VFR):

    • Ceiling 1,000 to 3,000 feet and/or visibility 3 to 5 miles inclusive

  • VFR:

    • Ceiling greater than 3,000 feet and visibility greater than 5 miles; includes sky clear
  • The cause of LIFR, IFR, or MVFR is indicated by either ceiling or visibility restrictions or both
  • The contraction "CIG" and/or weather and obstruction to vision symbols are used
  • If winds or gusts of 25 knots or greater are forecast for the outlook period, the word "WIND" is also included for all categories including VFR
  • Examples:
    • LIFR CIG: low IFR due to low ceiling
    • IFR FG: IFR due to visibility restricted by fog
    • MVFR CIG HZ FU: marginal VFR due to both ceiling and visibility restricted by haze and smoke
    • IFR CIG RA WIND: IFR due to both low ceiling and visibility restricted by rain; wind expected to be 25 knots or greater
Area Forecast

Area Forecast Reports

  • Area forecasts are reported using four elements:
  • Area Forecast Header Example
    Area Forecast Header Example
  • Standard AIRMET Statement
    Standard AIRMET Statement
  • Area Forecast Synopsis Example
    Area Forecast Synopsis Example
  • VFR Clouds and Weather Example
    VFR Clouds and Weather Example

  • Communications and Product Header:

    • Area Forecast Header Example
      Area Forecast Header Example
    • 000 does not apply to the forecast
    • FA indicates an Area Forecast with a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) header [Figure 2]
      • FAUS41: Boston Area
      • FAUS42: Miami Area
      • FAUS43: Chicago Area
      • FAUS44: Dallas, Ft. Worth Area
      • FAUS45: Salt Lake City Area
      • FAUS46: San Francisco Area
    • The issuing agency will be listed:
      • KKCI: Aviation Weather Center (AWC)/Meteorological Watch Office (MWO) in Kansas City
      • PAWU: Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU)/MWO in Anchorage
      • PHFO: Honolulu Weather Forecast Office (WFO)/MWO in Honolulu
    • An Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) ID will be included which corresponds with the WMO header
      • The ID is now replaced with the WMO header but is left there to be clear for those who are used to an older system
        • FA1: Corresponds with FAUS41
        • FA2: Corresponds with FAUS42
        • FA3: Corresponds with FAUS43
        • FA4: Corresponds with FAUS44
        • FA5: Corresponds with FAUS45
        • FA6: Corresponds with FAUS46
    • The area the forecast applies to is listed again (clearly) but with a "C" appended, which indicates clouds and weather forecast
      • BOSC: Boston (clouds and weather forecast)
      • MIAC: Miami (clouds and weather forecast)
      • CHIC: Chicago (clouds and weather forecast)
      • DFWC: Dallas, Ft. Worth (clouds and weather forecast)
      • SLCC: Salt Lake City (clouds and weather forecast)
      • SFOC: San Francisco (clouds and weather forecast)
    • Issued date: day of the month and time; valid time begins 15 minutes later
      • 101745: Issued on the 10th day of the month at 1745 Zulu (Z)
        • Valid time begins on the hour at 1800Z
    • "SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX" is a standard line for all forecasts
    • Validity times are listed last for the synopsis, clouds and weather, and outlook:
      • SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 111200: valid until the 11th day of the month at 1200Z
      • CLOUDS/WX VALID UNTIL 110600: valid until the 11th day of the month at 0600Z
      • OTLK VALID 110600-111200: valid between the 11th day of the month from 0600Z to 1200Z

  • Precautionary Statements:

    • Standard AIRMET Statement
      Standard AIRMET Statement
    • Part of all area forecasts [Figure 3]
    • See AIRMET Sierra and IFR conditions and mountain obscuration
    • Thunderstorms imply possible severe or greater turbulence, severe icing, low-level wind shear, and instrument conditions
    • Heights which are not Mean Sea Level (MSL) are noted by the letters AGL (above ground level) or CIG (ceiling)

  • Synopsis:

    • Area Forecast Synopsis Example
      Area Forecast Synopsis Example
    • Contains many abbreviations that are found on various weather reports [Figure 4]
      • Brief description of the location and movement of fronts, pressure systems, and circulation patterns
    • Valid for 18 hours or until the date time group (DTG) in the same format as the issue DTG
      • SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 251400: Synopsis valid until the 25th day at 1400Z

  • VFR Clouds and Weather:

    • VFR Clouds and Weather Example
      VFR Clouds and Weather Example
    • Section contains a 12-hour specific forecast followed by a 6-hour categorical outlook for a total of 18 hours [Figure 5]
    • Usually several paragraphs in length
    • The breakdown may be by several states or known geographical areas
    • The specific forecast section gives a general description of clouds and weather which cover an area greater than 3,000 square miles and are significant to VFR flight operations
    • Clouds and Weather are valid until date time group in the same format as the issue DTG
      • CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 250800: Clouds and weather valid until the 25th day at 0800Z
    • Outlook valid from the DTG to the DTG listed
      • OTLK VALID 250800-251400: Outlook valid from the 25th day from 0800 to 1400Z the same day
    • The next line is the encompassing states covered by the report
      • NC, SC, GA, FL AND CSTL WTRS E OF 85W: North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida and coastal waters east of 85°W Longitude
    • An amended FA will have an AMD or COR in the heading of the forecast
Area Forecast

Area Forecast Conclusion

Area Forecast

Area Forecast References